The new Apple iPod has video. This reminds me of a conversation I had in 1997 with the EVP of Sales for Columbia Tri-Star Television Distribution. He asked me how the internet would affect television. I told him, “Watch the music industry. They are going to deal with Music on the net over the next 5 years. Whatever happens there, will probably happen in video. Video is 10x as large as music. Therefore, when average bandwidth is 10x what it is today, then the pattern should start.”
So analyzing my prediction, I see that bandwidth then was just starting the DSL revolution. Modems were leaving and DSL was popping up. Average speed of DSL was 768k download. Now, Cable modems and some DSL offer 6mb download. Approximately 10x. So now video is just starting to be available for mass downloads.
As bandwidth goes up (50-100 megabit), watch how the TV and Motion Picture Industries fight the same battles that the Music Industry has been fighting since 1997.
This prediction has been brought to you by http://www.toldyouso.com. By the way, what a waste of a great website name. My business plan is as follows: You create an account with toldyouso and you can then make predictions. No one is allowed to change a prediction once it is made. Then when your prediction comes true you can point to the website and say, “Told You So!” Great for married couples to resolve arguments about who said what and when. If anyone is interested in funding this great idea, please let me know. (Make money off of advertising and selling statistical analysis about aggregate predictions.)