Whenever I see people disagree about anything, I look for the differing predictions baked into their points of view. I blogged previously about why people disagree.
Last Thursday, Biden and Trump had a debate. Objectively, it was a bad night for Trump and a horrific night for Biden. Trump lied nonstop, and Biden looked really old. (Really, REALLY old!) Immediately, it kicked off a firestorm of discussion about whether Biden should step aside and pass the torch to another candidate.
In every one of these discussions, there were tons of predictions like:
- If Biden doesn’t step aside he will [win/lose]
- If Biden does step aside, it will make the situation [better/worse]
- Even if he won, Biden will [die/survive] the next 4 years
- If Trump wins, Democracy will collapse and he will become a dictator
Ruth Bader Ginsburg
I remember when Ruth Bader Ginsburg declined to step down after Obama won his 2nd term in 2012. She was 87 when she died in 2020. So she declined to step down in her early 80’s. She predicted that Hillary Clinton (or another democrat) would win the 2016 election when she was 83. She predicted incorrectly.
RGB died in the final months of Trump’s first term. Republicans rapidly nominated a right wing replacement before Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020. Had she lived 6 months longer, her replacement would have been nominated by Biden.
RGB was a legend, a figure revered by the left for decades. However, because of the circumstances of her death, her legacy has been severely tarnished. She will be remembered more for this final act of poor judgement than for the rest of her career.
Ultimately, it came down to a prediction. Will she live? Who will be in office? What will happen?
Joe Biden
Now we have a new set of predictions by the leader of the free world and president of the United States. He must be making predictions to the following questions:
- Will I survive the next 4 years?
- Will my body or mind fail me during the election or worse during a national crisis?
- Will I win or lose the election?
- What will my legacy be?
We are all making predictions, but only Joe’s predictions matter. He is a proud old white guy who has been used to being powerful his entire life. He is certainly not used to being this old, nor making predictions like this. In 2016 and 2020, Obama discouraged Biden from running. How does one man’s pride change his view on what the future holds.
For what it’s worth, I think it’s a gamble either way. If I advised Biden, I would counsel him to step aside and not endorse anyone. Have rapid fire debates at the convention.
The Supreme Court
This week we have a slew of troubling decisions from the Supreme Court. Again, everyone is making predictions. The court overturned the Chevron Deference precedent. Will it create a massive backlog of lawsuits? Will it contribute to pollution and other unfortunate consequences? Predictions about everywhere I look.
The decision saying presidents have partial immunity to the law has spurred a million predictions. Will that cause presidents to kill their enemies and jail their detractors? Will it lead to anarchy and dictatorship?
Every decisions has predictions of what will happen.
We all disagree with each other in this country. We are very vocal and adamant about our righteousness. Every disagreement has some prediction baked in, some of which are wild.
- What happens when you die? (Choose your religion)
- What will make God happy with me? (Choose your sect)
- What will make me happy with myself? (Choose your philosophy)
- What will make my career prosper? (Choose your vocation)
- How can I make the most money? (Choose your investments and tax strategy)
- What will make me popular? (Choose your fashion)
It is never ending. I wish that we all had a crystal ball and could see clearly the results of all decisions. That would certainly make voting alot easier.
Whatya think?