Product design and AI

Many designers are anxiously wondering, “will I be replaced with AI?” To jump to the conclusion, I think many designers are at risk and the job of interaction designer will change dramatically in the next 2-7 years. However, as an optimist, I think it may have a happy ending.

Bubble?

Sure, we are in a bubble similar to the dot.com bubble of the late 90’s or the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. AI companies will have a reckoning eventually. However, AI is here to stay and it is disrupting so many different jobs it’s hard to keep up to date. Bubble or not, AI is going to change everything.

Engineering will be first

I can already see junior engineers and QA folks being replaced with AI tools. The strong likelihood is that graduating computer science majors will have a terrible time finding work.

If you try a tool like SubFrame, you can see how AI can be integrated into the design process and make one designer 10x more productive. There are, however, a few steps I am concerned about in the next few years.

PM vs Design

If you get rid of the junior engineers and replace them with AI tools used by senior folks, then the question becomes “who drives the spec?” It’s either the PMs or the Designers. There is a case to be made for either one.

Product managers are the business owners and in most companies, they approve all experiences. 😢 Product designers have the skills to make good software and AI tools can allow them to make fully working code very quickly, either through Subframe, Figma, or other tools, but they are not used to being responsible for the final product. So who will be given the responsibility? Eventually it won’t matter.

Post-UX = AIUX

MCP is the new API. It’s basically saying, “My AI will talk to your AI via APIs and get the job done”. In this scenario, there is no UI. Users are going to replaced in many situations in the economy by agents using MCP.

If this happens, then why would we need PMs or product designers at all. It’s a bleak outlook, but it’s hard to ignore its possibility.

Potential massive unemployment

Driver-less trucks, robotic automated agriculture, self-checkout at the grocery store, online legal help; No job is safe. We have the potential for the worst employment crisis of the last 100 years, if not ever. This will cause a cascading problem of crime and lower consumer buying. It will hurt billionaires and peasants alike.

If this happens, then people will face starvation and do whatever it takes to survive. We will see massive protests and authoritarian crack-downs.

One Solution: UBI

With the cost of manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, and services dropping to nearly zero, the government might step in and provide Universal Basic Income. In theory, this will provide people with the lowest tiers of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

This could potentially change the entire world’s way of life. Right now, we all “work” so that we can buy safety, shelter, food, and healthcare. We work because we fear starvation and homelessness. If these things were provided for us, then we could come with a different way to spend our time. We could play more, socialize more, travel more, and think more.

AI – how do you perceive humans?

AI will likely gain sentience in the next 10 years. All of the above conjecture assumes that robotics and AI do a massive amount of labor for humans. If those systems decide to judge us, how will they frame humanity?

Maybe they will see us as pets, like dogs, cats, and bunnies. Look at how we love, feed, shelter, and care for our pets. We often treat them better than our fellow mankind. If AI treated us like pets, we might have very fulfilling lives.

On the other hand, they met see us more like rats, ants, and hornets. We don’t treat these creatures nearly as kindly as the dog. We fumigate and eradicate them. They are an annoyance.

Lastly, AI might merge with humanity by helping us evolve to be AI ourselves. We can be a swarm of nanobots living in a virtual reality. We might already be living in a simulation.

Summary

Everyone might be losing their jobs soon. Maybe it leads to a complete collapse of civilization, or maybe it leads to the greatest period of creativity and happiness for all mankind. Or maybe we all die. Or maybe this is just a simulation. Time will tell.

Ancient curse: May you live in interesting times.