Apologies for the extra long post.
I see a strong similarity between AI 2024 and the Web of 1995-1997. It’s hard to conceive now, with the internet being so ubiquitous and full-featured, but in 1996 you could barely do anything with the HTML. Netscape 1.0 had no CSS, no JavaScript, no tables…it was barely functional. It did not become a true platform for years. Not until 1999 did you start to see real applications. Now its been 30 years and we are still figuring out the best way to program applications in a browser.
AI is pretty new. ChatGPT 3 came out just 2 years ago. It has serious issues including hallucinations and straight out lying. The training data is limited and the processing required is large. Additionally, the electricity requirements are humongous.
In 1995, you could not have explained to me all of the different ways the internet would have disrupted the world without sounding crazy. When I tried to explain some of the power of the web, my step-mother famously said the following quote.
Mark my words…The Internet is a fad!”
– Susan 1997
Here are some thoughts on the coming years as I believe AI will evolve.
Electricity
To power the AI future we will need a lot more electricity. Good news is that renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. The trends already show solar and wind having a more efficient production than coal and fossil fuels.
I predict that our electrical production will keep increasing and meet demand. There will be high demand and that always leads to supply.
Electricidal Storage
I do feel that the next generation battery has been “around the corner” for 15 years, yet it does seem like progress is being made. Toyota claims it will have batteries in production by end of the decade. I believe that by 2030, we should have true production of batteries that are quicker to charge, longer lasting, and cheaper to build (with less toxic ingredients).
I predict that household battery stores will become more commonplace in 20 years where every house has several days/weeks of battery in their garage.
This electricity and battery advancements will power household AI requirements.
Household AI
I predict AI will be similar to operating systems. In fact, I think the same OS companies will provide devices for the home that deliver AI including Microsoft, Google, Apple, and an open source variant like Linux. There will competition to get you to subscribe to AI like you do with lots of software or entertainment today.
In the early days you will see devices like Alexa or Google speakers that offer AI chat using voice commands. Amazon has already started down this path. Expect Microsoft, Meta, and Google to match this offering in the next 2 years.
Later, when batteries, GPUs, and electricity become more powerful and cheaper, I can imagine a household hosted version. Remember when Microsoft said “A computer on every desk” and people thought that was crazy? Well, it came true. I think AI is a server farm issue today, but 30 years from now will be in your house.
Agents for Hire
AI by itself will be useful, but people will start offering specialty agents that can perform interesting tasks. These will take many forms. People will be creative with these. They will work like applications on your desktop, except they sit on your AI platform, not your computer. Amazon calls these “skills” currently.
I don’t know what form these will take. However, in 1995, we didn’t know what applications would be made on the web either. We were guessing. I think these Agents will encourage a new economic boom even though I can’t elaborate on the specific examples.
Disruptions
AI is already disrupting some industries. These are the ones I think are most vulnerable.
Manufacturing
Why do we need human hands to make things? Robots have become extremely dexterous. AI is powering them to “think” on their “feet” to adapt to unforeseen issues. I predict manufacturing will required fewer and fewer humans to product goods. This will drive the cost down for these goods and encourage more local plants since labor is not a limiting factor. No need to outsource to China for cheap labor when you get free labor from robots. At that point you would optimize for cheap land and central location for shipping.
Customer Success
In recent decades there was a move to offshore labor to India and other poor nations for customer success and other tasks. These people handled the simple issues and escalated to a more skilled worker if needed. The low tier support could easily be handled by AI in the future. Companies like Gladly (where my son works) are already breaking ground on that front for customer success.
Programming
I think computer programming may also be disrupted for many tasks, especially on the simpler side. I used AI this year to write a very simple script that worked well on this blog. Companies that offshore to India for programming may find a cheaper alternative closer to home. I can see people using chatGPT to assist programming in the next few years and then progressing further and further into the stack as it gets better and better.
Healthcare
Healthcare already has changed dramatically from when I was a kid. Conglomerates have swallowed up private practices to make medicine more profitable. Doctors are terrified of malpractice so they take a “the patient is always right” approach. Patients google their symptoms and just ask for prescription drugs. It’s a mess.
Similar to Customer Service, I think the low end of healthcare will be disrupted by AI. Your personal AI will schedule your appointment to get shots and X-rays. It will monitor your health stats with plugged in scales, wearables, and other household devices.
They will even start to perform microscopic surgery because their “hands” are more steady than human hands.
Legal Advice
AI will be better at representing you in all manner of legal claims. I think being a lawyer is completely disruptable. AI will know every law, every precedent, and every argument that every judge has heard. It will respond in real time and do live translation to people who don’t speak the local language.
Real Estate
AI agents will be better at finding buyers and sellers of homes. You will not need realtors. You almost can get away from them already. AI will push the realtor out forever.
Commercial real estate will similarly be transformed and hopefully become less stupid. So many empty office buildings taking up space is not our best choice as a society.
Employment Income
One thing you may notice is that many jobs may be diminished with AI. I think this is true. However, society can not stand without people having meaning, sustenance, and shelter in their lives. Mass unemployment leads to the best kind of socialism. Just look at the New Deal under Roosevelt after the Great Depression.
My prediction is that the pressure for Universal Basic Income will increase as AI takes more and more jobs. The role of the government in the economy is to spend money. Economies thrive on the steady flow of money. It is the lack of flow that causes bad outcomes.
In the book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, by English economist John Maynard Keynes, he outlines the details of this. Governments are not businesses and should not be run like businesses. Their job is to keep the flow of money humming without high inflation or deflation.
If we live in a world where too many tasks are doable by AI, we need to have an alternative way for people to gain income. After all, who will buy goods produced by AI if they don’t have jobs providing money. Another historical metaphor would be Henry Ford paying his employees more so they could afford the cars he was producing.
Summary
This post is getting too long as it is. So let’s bottom line it. AI is the most powerful single innovation in human history. In the next 30 years it will transform society completely. We can’t see it all yet, but this has been the case with all innovations. Anyone who says they “know” is selling you something.
My own journey has seen so many industries and norms get turned on their heads as technology progresses. It’s scary and also exhilarating. We live in interesting times and the story is still unfolding. Will it be a triumph of mankind or a tragedy?
Time will tell.
Whatya think?