Presidential Elections Rule #1:
The one with more charisma will win.
Since presidents have been using television to communicate with the people, the one with the most charisma has won. I’ll start conservatively with 1952, but it really was 1960 when television really took off.
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) – 442 | Adlai Stevenson (D) – 89 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) – 457 | Adlai Stevenson (D) – 73 |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy (D) – 303 | Richard Nixon (R) – 219 Harry F. Byrd (D) – 15 |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson (D) – 486 | Barry Goldwater (R) – 52 |
| 1968 | Richard Nixon (R) – 301 | Hubert Humphrey (D) – 191 George Wallace (I) – 46 |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon (R) – 520 | George McGovern (D) – 17 |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter (D) – 297 | Gerald Ford (R) – 240 |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan (R) – 489 | Jimmy Carter (D) – 49 |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan (R) – 525 | Walter Mondale (D) – 13 |
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush (R) – 426 | Michael Dukakis (D) – 111 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton (D) – 370 | George H. W. Bush (R) – 168 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton (D) – 379 | Bob Dole (R) – 159 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush (R) – 271 | Al Gore (D) – 266 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush (R) – 286 | John Kerry (D) – 251 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama (D) – 365 | John McCain (R) – 173 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama (D) – 332 | Mitt Romney (R) – 206 |
Compare the candidates. The one with more charisma won every time. 60 years and 16 elections worth of data.
The general masses of people don’t get excited about policy. We crave charismatic leadership. We want to have a beer with the candidate. This is why Trump is doing well. I hate him, but he has charisma. He may win over Hillary Clinton if nominated because of this rule.
This isn’t a happy rule, but I think it’s accurate.