Uncertainty report from 3 years ago with image excerpt. I think the last 3 years have increased the uncertainty on the right.
Uncertainty is the big U in FUD. It leads directly to the other two, Fear and Doubt. One thing the world abhors in uncertainty. (Take that Heisenberg!) Uncertainty leads to wars, to famine, to economic collapses, and poor decision making. In short, it’s terrible and we are in the middle of an uncertainty hurricane.
Here are some of the reasons for a spike right now.
Politics
This is the no-brainer one. Trump says one thing and does another. He makes outrageous statements and bizarre claims. Invade Greenland and Canada?! Electric cars are bad, no good, no I mean bad. Tariff now, no wait, ok now, no wait, maybe not. Government workers and their programs are being assisted in every direction. Immigrants are freaking out. This is obviously stressful.
No one knows where this is going. It is enough to drive someone mad, but it’s not the only thing driving uncertainty to record levels.
Climate change
Will the oceans rise faster than expected? Will the oceans ecosystem collapse? Will drought and famine upend where people can live? We may be on the cusp of the latest mass migration in human history. Potentially billions of people are at risk in the coming decades. How can you plan a city, or build a house, or buy a home without considering what climate change will do to the world. There are houses in the Berkeley hills that are significantly discounted because of fear of forest fires.
Climate change is coming, but the specifics contribute to the spike in uncertainty.
Artificial Intelligence
The internet disrupted almost every industry over the past 30 years. So many winners and losers, but no one could predict. Now AI has the potential of disrupting just as many industries. So many jobs are at risk of being replaced with machines.
Even designers like me are being flooded with ads about how our positions will be replaced by AI. I agree that visual design and maybe mobile design may be at risk. However, I think B2B complex systems still are safe. But who knows?
Are you a lawyer? A therapist? A taxi driver? An accountant? I would be worried if I were you. At minimum, you should be uncertain.
Crptocurrencies
Bitcoin, dogecoin, ethereum, the hawk-tua coin, and everything in between is very concerning. Currency markets are incredibly powerful and are feeling the stress that of uncertainty. Will these alternative currencies replace the dollar? What will happen? Will it affect taxes? I have no idea, it just makes me feel uncertain.
China
China’s economy is huge. They have proven that you do not need democracy to have a strong economy. They are an authoritarian dictatorship with a surveillance network controlling billions of citizens. They took over Hong Kong and crushed independence. Next, they have their eyes on Taiwan and the world’s CPU market with it. Will they invade? Will they chill? I am totally, utterly uncertain.
So what?
This level of uncertainty is making everyone tense. It’s making companies pare back their investments in people, locations, and benefits. It’s making governments pull back and hunker down.
With that said, I feel there may be a silver lining. There may be bad things on the horizon, but I think it may yield an even brighter future. WWII was a terrible event in history, but the Marshall Plan led to prosperous and peaceful Europe. AI may replace some jobs, but it might also make Universal Basic Income a reality. It may lead to more people having access to proper legal (or other) advice.
If we are truly in a spike of uncertainty, I at least, choose to be optimistic.
Whatya think?